Interest rates on loans and deposits in Uzbekistan may gradually decline over the next three to four years. The Central Bank attributes this outlook to lower inflation, growth in bank deposits, a gradual balancing of credit demand and stronger competition among commercial banks.

At a press conference on November 4, 2026, Central Bank Deputy Chairman Nodirbek Achilov explained why lending rates remain relatively high and outlined the regulator’s expectations for the coming years.

Average lending rates have already started to decline

According to the Central Bank, average lending rates have fallen by 2–3 percentage points compared with August 2025.

Interest rates vary depending on the type of loan. Investment loans generally carry lower rates, while short-term, unsecured and rapidly issued online microloans tend to remain more expensive.

Mortgage rates have also declined. According to the Central Bank representative, some mortgage offers that carried rates of around 24–25% three to four years ago are now available at rates as low as 18%.

Important: this does not mean that all banks offer mortgages at 18%. Rates depend on the bank, lending programme, loan term, collateral and the borrower’s profile.

Why do lending rates remain high?

The cost of a loan largely depends on how much a bank pays to obtain the funds it later lends to customers.

If banks attract deposits at relatively high interest rates or borrow expensive funds from external sources, this cost is reflected in lending rates.

The growth rate of bank deposits has now reached up to 45%. A broader deposit base provides banks with more domestic funding and may gradually reduce the cost of lending resources.

Growth in deposits, lower inflation and stronger competition between banks can create conditions for a gradual reduction in lending rates.

The policy rate remains at 14%

On November 4, 2026, the Central Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 14% per year.

The possibility of lowering it to 13.5% was also considered, but the regulator decided to maintain the current rate due to remaining inflationary risks.

Further declines in inflation and inflation expectations could provide greater scope for easing monetary conditions.

Why is the outlook based on a 3–4 year period?

According to the Central Bank, strong demand for loans is gradually moving toward a more balanced level.

At the same time:

inflation is declining;

the banking system’s deposit base is expanding;

competition between banks is increasing;

the range of financial products is growing;

money-market instruments are being developed.

If these trends continue, interest rates on loans and deposits are expected to gradually decline over the next three to four years.

However, this does not guarantee that lending rates will fall to a specific level by a specific date. It is a Central Bank forecast based on current market and macroeconomic trends.

Who determines lending rates?

Under Uzbek law, commercial banks independently determine interest rates on loans and deposits.

Therefore, a Central Bank policy rate of 14% does not mean that commercial banks must issue loans at 14%.

The final lending rate depends on the bank’s funding costs, the type and term of the loan, risk level, collateral and other factors.

A bank may not unilaterally change the interest rate or the method for determining it under an existing loan agreement.

Legal and official basis

Legal basis: Article 62 of the Law “On Banks and Banking Activity,” under which banks independently determine interest rates on loans and deposits.

Official basis: statements made by the Central Bank’s management at the November 4, 2026 press conference.